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The Weekly Signal
The CBN Just Blinked.
That's Bullish.
Rate cuts. Profit-taking. A historic all-time high. And a dividend announcement that confirms one company is firing on all cylinders. This week had it all.
📅 Saturday, 27 February 2026 · ⏱ 5-min read · 📊 Powered by NGX Pulse
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Market Scorecard
Breather After the Sprint
After surging to an all-time high of 194,989.77 last Friday, the market took a step back this week. Three consecutive days of bearish trading saw profit-taking across key sectors, pulling the ASI to 192,826.77 — essentially flat on the week at +0.05%. That's not weakness — that's the market consolidating after a historic run.
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ASI Close
192,826
▲ +0.05% wk
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Market Cap
₦123.76T
— Consolidating
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YTD Return
+24.91%
▲ Strong 2026
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Context: The profit-taking this week is healthy, not alarming. The market is up nearly 25% in under two months. A pause was inevitable — and the macro backdrop just got even more supportive with the CBN's rate cut.
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The Big Story
CBN Cuts Rates to 26.5% — The Second Cut in Six Months
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MPR Change · Feb 24, 2026
Central Bank of Nigeria
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Previous
27.0%
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New Rate
26.5%
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On February 24, the CBN's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to cut the benchmark rate by 50 basis points — the second cut in six months, following the September 2025 reduction from 27.5% to 27%. Governor Olayemi Cardoso cited 11 consecutive months of declining inflation, a stable naira, and $50.45 billion in external reserves — the highest level in 13 years.
Nigeria's headline inflation now sits at 15.1%, down from a peak above 34%. Food inflation has dropped sharply to 8.89%. The disinflation trend is real, and the CBN is responding accordingly.
| What This Means for Investors |
| 📉 |
Fixed income yields will drift lower — making equities relatively more attractive as an asset class. |
| 🏦 |
Banks benefit first — cheaper cost of funds improves margins; watch tier-1 lenders heading into Q1 earnings. |
| 🌍 |
Foreign investors take notice — $1.97B in foreign deals on NGX in 2025 was a 19-year high. Rate stability + FX stability = continued inflows. |
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Watch election spending risk — Cardoso flagged this explicitly. Fiscal overreach could reignite inflation in H2 2026. |
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Precious's take: The CBN cutting earlier than expected — markets had priced March — signals genuine confidence in the disinflation story. That's a green flag for equities long-term, even as we digest the current profit-taking.
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Sector Spotlight
Banking & Financial Services: The Rate Cut Play
The CBN rate cut puts banking stocks squarely in focus. Lower cost of funds, improved loan demand, and 20 banks now meeting the new recapitalisation threshold — the sector enters Q1 earnings season with serious tailwinds.
| Stock |
Move |
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NGXGROUP
Exchange operator · +61.4% YTD
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▲ +9.78% day |
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ZENITHBANK
Tier-1 · Q1 earnings due next week
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▲ +2.25% day |
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FCMB
Up 48% from 52-week low (₦8.35 → ₦12.35)
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▲ +1.83% day |
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SOVRENINS
Insurance · Top sector gainer
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▲ +9.95% day |
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What to watch: Q1 2026 earnings from ZENITHBANK, GTCO, and UBA kick off next week. With rate cuts improving net interest margins and FX stability supporting earnings quality, expect strong numbers. Any beat could re-ignite the rally.
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Corporate Highlight
Seplat: Revenue Up 144%, Dividend Up 52%
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SEPLAT
Seplat Energy Plc · FY 2025 Results
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Total Dividend
US 8.3¢
5¢ final + 3.3¢ special
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Seplat dropped its full-year 2025 results this week and they were exceptional. Revenue surged 144% to $2.73 billion, driven by the full-year consolidation of its $1.28B ExxonMobil offshore acquisition. Adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $1.28B.
The total dividend for 2025 comes to 25 US cents per share — a 52% increase year-on-year — representing roughly $150 million returned to shareholders. Payment date is on or around May 29, 2026.
| Metric |
FY 2025 |
| Revenue |
$2.73B ▲ +144% |
| Adjusted EBITDA |
$1.28B ▲ +137% |
| Operating Profit |
$675.2M ▲ +107% |
| Cash from Operations |
$1.17B ▲ +276% |
| Total 2025 Dividend |
US 25¢/share ▲ +52% |
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Top Movers
Day's Best & Worst
Note: Figures below reflect single-session performance (weekly data compiling). All prices as reported on NGX.
▲ Top Gainers
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SOVRENINS Insurance
Sovereign Trust Insurance
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₦2.21
▲ +9.95%
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NGXGROUP Financial
Nigerian Exchange Group
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₦124.00
▲ +9.78%
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ELLAHLAKES Agriculture
Ellah Lakes Plc
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₦13.00
▲ +9.70%
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UPDC Real Estate
UPDC Real Estate Investment Trust
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₦5.25
▲ +9.38%
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▼ Notable Losers
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MECURE Healthcare
Mecure Industries
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₦75.85
▼ -9.97%
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DANGCEM Industrial
Dangote Cement Plc · Large-cap profit-taking
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₦779.00
▼ -6.09%
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DAARCOMM Media
DAAR Communications · Giving back last week's spike
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₦2.11
▼ -9.83%
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The Week Ahead
Q1 Earnings Season Begins
Next week is the most important of the quarter. With the CBN rate cut providing a favorable macro backdrop, all eyes shift to whether corporate earnings can validate the market's lofty valuations.
| To Watch |
Why It Matters |
| ZENITHBANK, GTCO, UBA earnings |
First read on bank performance under easing rates |
| MTNN, DANGCEM results |
Large-cap bellwethers that set the market tone |
| Q4 2025 GDP data |
Cardoso flagged the Q4 GDP report is due; will confirm economic trajectory |
| FX & parallel market rates |
Naira stability is a key pillar of the bull case — watch for any pressure |
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